{"id":8122,"date":"2014-09-16T17:02:16","date_gmt":"2014-09-16T15:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.minicrm.hu\/?p=8122"},"modified":"2023-06-01T11:22:30","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T09:22:30","slug":"hogyan-szamold-ki-az-ertekesitesi-celszamokat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.minicrm.hu\/blog\/2014\/09-16\/hogyan-szamold-ki-az-ertekesitesi-celszamokat\/","title":{"rendered":"Hogyan sz\u00e1mold ki az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si c\u00e9lsz\u00e1mokat?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s hasznos sz\u00e1modra, az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151id, \u00e9s a befektet\u0151id sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is. Mi alapj\u00e1n tudsz re\u00e1lis, de m\u00e9gis motiv\u00e1l\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel el\u0151\u00e1llni?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8110\" src=\"https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target.jpg\" alt=\"sales_target\" width=\"598\" height=\"449\" srcset=\"https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target.jpg 598w, https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target-535x402.jpg 535w, https:\/\/minicrm-wp-hu.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/2014\/09\/sales_target-400x300.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 598px) 100vw, 598px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si terv vagy el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez h\u00e1rom szempontot \u00e9rdemes \u00e9szben tartani:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s \u00fczleti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s: a v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3k sz\u00e1ma, \u00e9s v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1si erej\u00fck (mennyi a rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3, k\u00f6lthet\u0151 \u00e1tlagj\u00f6vedelem? V\u00e1rhat\u00f3-e ennek v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, vagy m\u00e1s gazdas\u00e1gi t\u00e9nyez\u0151k miatt?)<\/li>\n<li>Az \u00fczlet\u00e1gi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s: a versenyt\u00e1rsaid v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 hat\u00e1sai<\/li>\n<li>A piaci r\u00e9szesed\u00e9sed: ezt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.minicrm.hu\/blog\/2023\/06-01\/marketing-terv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a marketing terv alapj\u00e1n<\/a> kell kisz\u00e1molnod.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Mennyi id\u0151re \u00e9rdemes el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st vagy tervet k\u00e9sz\u00edteni?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Egy keresked\u00e9si id\u0151szakra \u2013 m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9shez sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges b\u00fcdzs\u00e9vel kapcsolatos d\u00f6nt\u00e9sek, a termel\u00e9si terv \u00e9s a cash flow figyelembe v\u00e9tel\u00e9vel<\/li>\n<li>1-3 \u00e9vre: az eszk\u00f6z\u00f6kkel val\u00f3 tervez\u00e9s \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben. Milyen t\u00edpus\u00fa \u00e9s h\u00e1ny g\u00e9pre lesz sz\u00fcks\u00e9getek, nyersanyag, munkaer\u0151 sz\u00fcks\u00e9gletek. Enn\u00e9l tov\u00e1bb r\u00e9szletes tervet \u00edrni nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl \u00e9rdemes a gyors piaci \u00e9s technol\u00f3giai v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok miatt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>M\u00e9rt \u00edrj el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Termel\u00e9s \u2013 ez alapj\u00e1n fogod a gy\u00e1rt\u00e1st tervezni<\/li>\n<li>Forgalmaz\u00e1s \u2013 a rakt\u00e1rhelys\u00e9gek, munkaer\u0151 tervez\u00e9se miatt<\/li>\n<li>HR \u2013 mennyi embert kell majd \u00e9s mikor felvenned<\/li>\n<li>P\u00e9nz\u00fcgyek \u2013 mennyi p\u00e9nz fog mire jutni?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ahogy \u00edrod a tervet, a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151kre figyelj:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mi az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s c\u00e9lja?<\/li>\n<li>Milyen t\u00e9nyez\u0151k befoly\u00e1solj\u00e1k az elad\u00e1st, \u00e9s melyiknek mekkora jelent\u0151s\u00e9ge van?<\/li>\n<li>Szedd \u00f6ssze az \u00f6sszes rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 adatot (az eddigi elad\u00e1sok, ha rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1llnak, m\u00e1s c\u00e9gek becs\u00fclt, vagy nyilv\u00e1nos adatai, stb).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Milyen m\u00f3dokon k\u00e9sz\u00edthetsz el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st?<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>V\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3i v\u00e9lem\u00e9nyeztet\u00e9s, piackutat\u00e1s\n<ul>\n<li>Neh\u00e9z, nem megb\u00edzhat\u00f3, \u00e9s nem egyszer\u0171 belesz\u00e1m\u00edtani a versenyt\u00e1rsaid cselekedeteit<\/li>\n<li>Ha van r\u00e1 lehet\u0151s\u00e9g, mindenk\u00e9pp \u00e9rdemes megcsin\u00e1lni, de csak erre \u00e9p\u00edteni vesz\u00e9lyes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Konszenzus\n<ul>\n<li>Eredetileg azt jelenti, a vev\u0151kh\u00f6z legk\u00f6zelebb \u00e1ll\u00f3 \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151k \u00e1llnak el\u0151 sz\u00e1mokkal, amit azt\u00e1n a region\u00e1lis menedzserek \u00e9s a marketing oszt\u00e1ly is jav\u00edt, figyelembe v\u00e9ve a nemzeti statisztik\u00e1kat, az \u00faj fejleszt\u00e9seket, stb.<\/li>\n<li>A Delphi-m\u00f3dszer: v\u00e1lassz ki a szakm\u00e1ban\/\u00fczlet\u00e1gban fontos szak\u00e9rt\u0151ket, akiknek egym\u00e1st\u00f3l f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl fel tudsz tenni a j\u00f6v\u0151re vonatkoz\u00f3 k\u00e9rd\u00e9seket (mit gondolnak, mi fog v\u00e1ltozni a gazdas\u00e1gban, az \u00fczlet\u00e1gban stb. j\u00f6v\u0151re, a t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi adatok alapj\u00e1n mire sz\u00e1m\u00edtanak, a te c\u00e9geddel kapcsolatban\u2026).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Objekt\u00edv technik\u00e1k:\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Id\u0151soros: egyszer\u0171 matematika\n<ul>\n<li>A legegyszer\u0171bb form\u00e1ban: mozg\u00f3 \u00e1tlag (a m\u00faltbeli \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9sek \u00e1tlaga)<\/li>\n<li>M = 1\/6x(d+d<sub>t-1<\/sub>+d<sub>t-2<\/sub>+\u2026+d<sub>t-5<\/sub>), ahol M=az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s adott h\u00f3napra, d= kereslet az el\u0151z\u0151 h\u00f3napokban<\/li>\n<li>\u00c1prilis=1\/5x(M\u00e1rcius+Febru\u00e1r+Janu\u00e1r+December+November)<\/li>\n<li>Ez a m\u00f3dszer felt\u00e9telezi, hogy van egy alapvet\u0151 ig\u00e9ny, ami nem sokat v\u00e1ltozik. Ez stabil kereslet mellett elfogadhat\u00f3, de a legt\u00f6bb piac t\u00fal dinamikus csak ehhez.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Trendek alapj\u00e1n\n<ul>\n<li>Trendek, plusz ciklikuss\u00e1g, plusz szezonalit\u00e1s, plusz rezidualit\u00e1s<\/li>\n<li>S = TxCxSxR\n<ul>\n<li>T=trend<\/li>\n<li>C=ciklikus hull\u00e1mz\u00e1s<\/li>\n<li>S=szezonalit\u00e1s<\/li>\n<li>R=rezidualit\u00e1s<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Miket tarts \u00e9szben el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s \u00edr\u00e1sakor?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>V\u00e1ltozik-e az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151id sz\u00e1ma?<\/li>\n<li>Mentek-e valamilyen ki\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sra\/konferenci\u00e1ra?<\/li>\n<li>Volt-e v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s a vev\u0151iddel t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3ban? (Pl. t\u00f6bb h\u00edrlevelet k\u00fcldt\u00f6k).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Az egyes \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151k hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul\u00e1s\u00e1t pedig a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151k\u00e9pp sz\u00e1molhatod ki:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ha az el\u0151z\u0151 \u00e9vben egy \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151 a bev\u00e9tel X sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t csin\u00e1lta meg, akkor ugyanezt a sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot a v\u00e1rt magasabb \u00f6sszbev\u00e9tel mellett is elv\u00e1rhatod.<\/li>\n<li>Ha \u00faj \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151t veszel fel, \u00e9rdemes az \u00f6sszes \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151 els\u0151 \u00e9ves \u00e1tlag\u00e1t venni alapul, \u00e9s az alapj\u00e1n megbesz\u00e9lni az elv\u00e1rt sz\u00e1mot.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s hasznos sz\u00e1modra, az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151id, \u00e9s a befektet\u0151id sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is. Mi alapj\u00e1n tudsz re\u00e1lis, de m\u00e9gis motiv\u00e1l\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel el\u0151\u00e1llni? Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si terv vagy el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez h\u00e1rom szempontot \u00e9rdemes \u00e9szben tartani: Gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s \u00fczleti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s: a v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3k sz\u00e1ma, \u00e9s v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00e1si erej\u00fck (mennyi a rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3, k\u00f6lthet\u0151 \u00e1tlagj\u00f6vedelem? V\u00e1rhat\u00f3-e ennek v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sa az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3, vagy m\u00e1s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-ertekesites","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hogyan sz\u00e1mold ki az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si c\u00e9lsz\u00e1mokat?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s hasznos sz\u00e1modra, az \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u0151id, \u00e9s a befektet\u0151id sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is. 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